the garden of forking paths gelman

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Andrew Gelman: Well, no. Statistician, blogger, and author Andrew Gelman of Columbia University talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about the challenges facing psychologists and economists when using small samples. But at least I see light at the end of the tunnel for many sciences. Gelman, A., & Loken, E. (2013). What do you do with that? He provides many examples with the studies he criticizes to explain how different findings could have been framed in a different way had the data been different. And the extreme is the one we're pretty much in. This is a scientific result. Andrew Gelman: Yeah. I'm not going to somehow defend if someone says, 'Well, I have this statistically significant result, therefore you should do this in the economy'. But, within the context of doing that, I do feel that we've learned. So, a lot of people felt that if you have a field experiment, if you have a field experiment, you have identification because it's an experiment. And the did the study--we'll come back to the study. Maybe not. I *think* I understand the problem, but I would have preferred more discussion of the proper methods of data analysis. And similarly, in economics, the idea that we can control for these factors and measure, say, 'The Multiplier'--to come back the 'The' Priming Effect, strikes me as foolish, silly, and unscientific. Collaborative file editing is currently unavailable. It should be possible to fill in the steps: to connect from the theory to the empirics and ultimately [?] Alternatively, one could conclude that the model’s purpose is not really to accurately forecast GDP, although trillions depend on it. This is generally a good idea, as you learn more about the robustness of your conclusion to different judgments about the science-to-statistics translation. (Though crazy as it seems, there is some evidence now that Lamarck was not totally wrong.) So I see well done research and my posterior beliefs move a little. Right. The reason is that under replication the data would have turned out differently, leading you to perform a different test, and thereby obtaining a different sort of p-value. There was a psychologist at Cornell University who did an experiment on Cornell students of ESP (Extra Sensory Perception). Also not mentioned (these are not criticisms, just ideas for follow up), is the concept of “numbers needed to treat”. Privacy Policy And that was the most stunning thing I'd--besides the fact that he conceded that his chapter was probably not reliable, the fact that he also conceded that he had used the fact that they had survived the peer-review process as sufficient to prove their scientific merit was also stunning to me. And it was statistically significant. So they averaged over that. Andrew Gelman: back [?] The eleventh OSCR ReproducibiliTea journal club will take place on October 28th at 15:00. If a researcher, in the example above for example, hypothesized that younger women dressed in a way consistent with their ovulation cycle and older women did not, then it wouldn't matter if they found that the opposite was true. Obviously, this is completely wrong. We should be planning on population based statistics because it is just a matter of time before the economy or health will have every transaction or health incidence measured. I agree with your skepticism about your own skepticism. And yet we are not so good at that. [Comment removed pending confirmation of email address. I wouldn't want just some non-experts to make it up. I do[?] Of course, if you then claim the coin gives 55% heads, and someone wants to replicate this finding, they need to design an experiment with could produce one of two results: (1) the outcome they get would only happen with a >55% heads coin 1 in 20 times, so your finding was wrong; (2) the outcome they get would only happen with a <55% heads coin 1 in 20 times, so your finding was right. So, the flip is if people are doing policy, they need to have good records. Most would see directly hacking the data as out-and-out fraud, not mere self-deception. A number of commenters are taking Russ to task for “nihilism”, “disdain”, etc. And one of the problems is that we are kind of conditioned to think that if you--we're conditioned to think that the point of social science is to get these definitive studies, these definitive experiments. Is that correct? It's let's use statistical methods that allow me to integrate theory with data more effectively, and more openly. Just some food for thought I hope. But, go ahead. You mention social scientists sitting in classrooms, unaware of the fundamental limitations of the tools they learn about. And who have empirical work that they're right and you're wrong; and each side feels smug: that it's studies are the good studies. This is a standard thing. So there's another theory that these things won't have such large effects; that the deficits that people have are symptoms, not causes; and so reducing these deficits might not solve the problem.

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